Analysis Of The Determinants Of The Exports Of Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis

Abstract

This research aims to quantify the impact of various economic and institutional variables on Pakistan's exports. Research Gap: This study has employed institutional quality as the independent variable for the determinant of exports. Over the recent past a few studies have investigated the impact of institutional quality on Pakistan's exports. The other important independent variable used were World Tariff, World GDP, Relative Prices, GDP, Trade Openness and Exchange rate. Methodology: The study employed TSD from 1990 to 2024. This study analyzed the data by using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test, Granger Causality Test, Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model and Error Correction Model. The Main Findings: The results stated Gross Domestic Product, Trade openness, Institutional Quality, World Gross Domestic Products have positive while World Tariffs Rate, Relative Prices and Real Exchange Rate have negative impacts on the Pakistan’s exports. Practical Implications of the Findings: This study suggests that to increase exports Pakistan needs a stable exchange rate, have strong institutions and open trade policies. This study also suggests to focus on enhancing product competitiveness and leveraging global demand. This study also suggests to stabilize the exchange rate, boost domestic economic growth and production, improve product competitiveness, strengthen institutions, increase trade openness, diversify markets globally, fight for lower tariffs, and maintain consistent export momentum.